JP Morgan Sees Bitcoin Outpacing Gold as Crypto Derivatives Market Expands

Bitcoin has more potential upside than gold, continuing a trend seen in recent months as the largest digital asset by market value has rallied, JP Morgan analysts wrote in a note published Thursday.

Analysts noted that Bitcoin has been buoyed by a range of catalysts lately, including growing corporate treasury allocations and legislation, both proposed and enacted, allowing states to invest in the asset.

They also pointed to recent acquisitions by Coinbase and Kraken as signs of a maturing futures and derivatives market.

“We expect the year-to-date zero-sum game between gold and Bitcoin to extend to the remainder of the year, but are biased towards crypto-specific catalysts creating more upside for Bitcoin over gold into the second half of the year,” the analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote. 

JP Morgan’s report follows a recent crypto market rally that pushed Bitcoin above $104,500—its highest level since late January and within 5% of its all-time high reached that month.

Investors have returned to risk assets in recent weeks, with Bitcoin leading the charge.

While some advocates continue to position the world’s largest crypto as a safe-haven asset, JP Morgan previously noted it has more often behaved like a risk-on investment, correlating with equities rather than decoupling from broader market trends.

Derivatives and acquisitions

JP Morgan also pointed to a string of recent deals as signs of a maturing crypto derivatives market.

These include Coinbase’s acquisition of Deribit, Kraken’s purchase of U.S. futures platform NinjaTrader, and Gemini securing a license to offer derivatives in Europe.

The analysts wrote that these developments show “that the crypto derivatives universe is maturing and by coming under US or EU regulations it could induce confidence and greater participation by traditional institutional investors.”

Still, gold prices may climb further if there are new developments in the ongoing tariff negotiations with China once the current 90-day pause ends, Michael Petch, CEO of digital precious metals platform Argo, told Decrypt.

The two assets have climbed steadily over the past year as investors fretted about inflation and wider macro uncertainties, although bitcoin has outpaced gold throughout that period.

Last December, Bitcoin ETFs overtook their gold counterparts for net inflows, according to K33 Research. As of May, Bitcoin ETFs are outpacing gold ETFs in new inflows.

Gold is trading at $3,230, down from its April all-time high of $3,500. Bitcoin was trading hands for $103,800, just below its January 20 record of nearly $109,000. 

Edited by Sebastian Sinclair